The Most Wonderful Time of the Year!
We're quietly sneaking up on one of the best days of the year. It is a day that some might not enjoy, but sports enthusiasts such as myself can't wait for this one day to roll around. What day is it? Well the opening day of the MLB season of course! While I consider myself an all around baseball fan, the team that I fancy the most is of course the Houston Astros. There are a long 20 days and 7 hours until the the Astros first pitch against last year's NL Central champs St. Louis Cardinals. It looks as if this season might be a step down from last seasons wild-card winning team. However, I feel that everyone might be in for a bit of a surprise.
The 'Stros lost Jeff Kent who led the team in RBI's, and also Carlos Beltrán who was the catalyst in the team's surge towards the end of the season last year. Those are two huge holes to fill. Somewhere in the middle of the off-season, the team switched General Managers. I was hoping that as a result the Astros would go into a spending spree, or make some blockbuster trade after Beltrán left. I'm glad I wasn't holding my breath. Instead of bringing someone new in, they decided to rely on their farm system. Let's hope that Chris Burke and Willy Taverez can take the place of the two guys we lost. I feel that it is good to get these new guys into the rotation now, instead of holding on to some older veterans whose production declines every year. From what I hear, Burke could be a serious Rookie of the Year candidate if he can prove himself more worthy of the second base position than Craig Biggio is. Taverez evidently is also a speed demon. He stole 76 bases last season in AA ball. That's the bad thing though, AA. He's never played higher than AA. The Astros believe that he has every tool he needs to be a big leaguer, but is lacking only the ability to switch hit. Even if he's not ready this year, Taverez is definitely the Astros center fielder of the future.
The line up doesn't look like it'll have near as much pop this year as it did last year. Instead of having to rely on the long ball to bring in runs, Phil Garner will have to steal some bases, and play a little small ball to produce. I think that this kind of baseball is more exciting as a whole to watch. Of course there is nothing more exciting to watch than a guy hitting the ball 350 feet over the outfield walls, but home runs are few and far between. If you've got a couple of guys who can swipe more than 50 bags a year, I'm all for it. With some of our older vets getting on up there in age, the addition of these young guys might might provide the Astros with some unexpected speed.
The rotation looks really good 1 through 4, if and only if they can stay healthy. The ace will be Roy Oswalt. Who I feel is one of the better pitchers in all of MLB. Hopefully he's looking at another 20+ win season, with a low ERA. After him is probably the biggest question mark, after the number 5 starter. Andy Pettitte, if healthy is one of the most dominate post-season pitchers of all time. If he can bring that into the regular season, and stay healthy, the Astros have a chance to have at least three, 20 game winners. Behind Pettitte is hopefully the rock of the Astros rotation (or should I say ROCKET). If Clemens can have a season anywhere near as dominant as last season was the Astros will be looking alright. If Brandon Backe in the 4th spot can do what he did for the last two months of the season last year, for the entire season this year, the Astros will look great. The 5th spot is a different story. Who will it be? No one actually knows. I prefer a young left hander by the name of Carlos Hernandez. I saw this guy make his first professional start in person. He was dominating. If he hadn't had so many health problems he might have already been locked in at the #4 spot in the rotation.
If the starting pitching can make it seven innings or so, it'll be nice to have a good set up guy and a closer. It looks as if the set up man could be Chad Qualls, or Dan Wheeler. Regardless, all these guys have to do is hold onto it for one inning until the big bopper can come in. Perhaps the best, and most underrated closer in the game is the Astros closer, Brad Lidge. He made a name for himself last year in the playoffs, but this year will really be his year to become one of the most dominant closers in the game. I feel that he can be up there, if not better than guys like Gagne, Rivera, and whoever else you want to throw out. If Lidge gets the ball in the 9th with a lead, go ahead and pack those bags.
So my thoughts on the upcoming season....
AL West- As the Rangers guys get more experience and a little older, they'll get much better. I feel that they are still several years away though. Seattle really improved themselves too, but there is only one team to beat in this division. The Angels are the team to beat in my mind.
My pick: California/Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels
AL Central- The Tigers look to be much improved, but the race here will be between the Twins and the White Sox. When all is said and done, it'll be close, but the Twins will be a couple of games better than the Sox.
My pick: Minnesota Twins
AL East- Once again, a two team race. Should Tampa Bay and Toronto even have teams anymore? It looks like Baltimore might cause fits for the Red Sox and the Yankees when they get hot, but in the long run, they won't be able to keep up with the big dawgs of the East. The Red Sox are the defending World Champions, but they were the Wild Cards last year, and that's where I like them to finish this year. The Yankees will win this one by around 10 games.
My pick: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox.
NL West- This could be a very exciting division. The top 3 teams are all good enough to take this division. I also think that Arizona will be somewhat improved this year (even though they lost their unit). The Giants made some great off-season moves, but they are too old. Los Angeles made some good moves too, but they also lost Beltre. If it weren't for their two big off season pick ups, Jeff Kent, and JD Drew, their line up would not be too impressive. The Padres match up well with all of the other teams in this division, and if they start to actually gain some homefield advantage in PETCO Park, then they'll win this division.
My Pick: San Diego Padres
NL East- My biggest hope of the season (not having to do with the Astros) is that the Mets have a flop of a season. Sure, call me bitter, I don't mind, I am. I look for the Mets to finish towards the bottom of this division, right above the Nationals/Expos. They are an intriguing team, the first year in the nation's capitol. I don't expect anything great out of them yet, but in a few years when MLB doesn't own them anymore, they might be a team to be reckoned with. So that leaves us with the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies. The fish are a good team, but I don't think they have the support of the city of Miami. While that doesn't seem like that big of a deal, I think it'll account for something. The Phillies are an explosive offensive team. I don't think the pitching will stack up though. So as much as it pains me to say it (I hate the Braves), Atlanta will be the team to beat. With Smoltz back in the rotation and Kolb as the closer, it might be lights out for the other NL teams.
My pick: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: What was the best division in baseball last year is now probably has only one team at the top. The Cubbies are overrated, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee won't get too far. I think Cincinatti will hold on until a little after the All-Star break. In the end though, it'll be St. Louis at the top, and a battle between the Cubbies and my Astros for second. Don't forget the old No Fear Shirts "2nd place is the first loser". That may be the case usually, but not when the Wild Card is at stake. St. Louis is a team that I can't hate. They are of course in the same division as the Astros, but are all in all a classy team. They have by far the best line-up in baseball, and their pitching is great. They'll probably sweep the Astros in the first series of the year.
My pick: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card: Houston Astros (who else?)
Post Season...
AL
Divisional Series
Yankees over the Twins
Angels over the Red Sox
AL Championship
Yankees over Angels
NL
Divisional Series
Astros over the Braves
Cards over the Padres
NL Championship
Cardinals over the Astros (in 7)
World Series
Cardinals over the Yankees in 6
It's the Cardinal's year....
Of course I am by no means an expert, but check back on these in October...
The 'Stros lost Jeff Kent who led the team in RBI's, and also Carlos Beltrán who was the catalyst in the team's surge towards the end of the season last year. Those are two huge holes to fill. Somewhere in the middle of the off-season, the team switched General Managers. I was hoping that as a result the Astros would go into a spending spree, or make some blockbuster trade after Beltrán left. I'm glad I wasn't holding my breath. Instead of bringing someone new in, they decided to rely on their farm system. Let's hope that Chris Burke and Willy Taverez can take the place of the two guys we lost. I feel that it is good to get these new guys into the rotation now, instead of holding on to some older veterans whose production declines every year. From what I hear, Burke could be a serious Rookie of the Year candidate if he can prove himself more worthy of the second base position than Craig Biggio is. Taverez evidently is also a speed demon. He stole 76 bases last season in AA ball. That's the bad thing though, AA. He's never played higher than AA. The Astros believe that he has every tool he needs to be a big leaguer, but is lacking only the ability to switch hit. Even if he's not ready this year, Taverez is definitely the Astros center fielder of the future.
The line up doesn't look like it'll have near as much pop this year as it did last year. Instead of having to rely on the long ball to bring in runs, Phil Garner will have to steal some bases, and play a little small ball to produce. I think that this kind of baseball is more exciting as a whole to watch. Of course there is nothing more exciting to watch than a guy hitting the ball 350 feet over the outfield walls, but home runs are few and far between. If you've got a couple of guys who can swipe more than 50 bags a year, I'm all for it. With some of our older vets getting on up there in age, the addition of these young guys might might provide the Astros with some unexpected speed.
The rotation looks really good 1 through 4, if and only if they can stay healthy. The ace will be Roy Oswalt. Who I feel is one of the better pitchers in all of MLB. Hopefully he's looking at another 20+ win season, with a low ERA. After him is probably the biggest question mark, after the number 5 starter. Andy Pettitte, if healthy is one of the most dominate post-season pitchers of all time. If he can bring that into the regular season, and stay healthy, the Astros have a chance to have at least three, 20 game winners. Behind Pettitte is hopefully the rock of the Astros rotation (or should I say ROCKET). If Clemens can have a season anywhere near as dominant as last season was the Astros will be looking alright. If Brandon Backe in the 4th spot can do what he did for the last two months of the season last year, for the entire season this year, the Astros will look great. The 5th spot is a different story. Who will it be? No one actually knows. I prefer a young left hander by the name of Carlos Hernandez. I saw this guy make his first professional start in person. He was dominating. If he hadn't had so many health problems he might have already been locked in at the #4 spot in the rotation.
If the starting pitching can make it seven innings or so, it'll be nice to have a good set up guy and a closer. It looks as if the set up man could be Chad Qualls, or Dan Wheeler. Regardless, all these guys have to do is hold onto it for one inning until the big bopper can come in. Perhaps the best, and most underrated closer in the game is the Astros closer, Brad Lidge. He made a name for himself last year in the playoffs, but this year will really be his year to become one of the most dominant closers in the game. I feel that he can be up there, if not better than guys like Gagne, Rivera, and whoever else you want to throw out. If Lidge gets the ball in the 9th with a lead, go ahead and pack those bags.
So my thoughts on the upcoming season....
AL West- As the Rangers guys get more experience and a little older, they'll get much better. I feel that they are still several years away though. Seattle really improved themselves too, but there is only one team to beat in this division. The Angels are the team to beat in my mind.
My pick: California/Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels
AL Central- The Tigers look to be much improved, but the race here will be between the Twins and the White Sox. When all is said and done, it'll be close, but the Twins will be a couple of games better than the Sox.
My pick: Minnesota Twins
AL East- Once again, a two team race. Should Tampa Bay and Toronto even have teams anymore? It looks like Baltimore might cause fits for the Red Sox and the Yankees when they get hot, but in the long run, they won't be able to keep up with the big dawgs of the East. The Red Sox are the defending World Champions, but they were the Wild Cards last year, and that's where I like them to finish this year. The Yankees will win this one by around 10 games.
My pick: New York Yankees
AL Wild Card: Boston Red Sox.
NL West- This could be a very exciting division. The top 3 teams are all good enough to take this division. I also think that Arizona will be somewhat improved this year (even though they lost their unit). The Giants made some great off-season moves, but they are too old. Los Angeles made some good moves too, but they also lost Beltre. If it weren't for their two big off season pick ups, Jeff Kent, and JD Drew, their line up would not be too impressive. The Padres match up well with all of the other teams in this division, and if they start to actually gain some homefield advantage in PETCO Park, then they'll win this division.
My Pick: San Diego Padres
NL East- My biggest hope of the season (not having to do with the Astros) is that the Mets have a flop of a season. Sure, call me bitter, I don't mind, I am. I look for the Mets to finish towards the bottom of this division, right above the Nationals/Expos. They are an intriguing team, the first year in the nation's capitol. I don't expect anything great out of them yet, but in a few years when MLB doesn't own them anymore, they might be a team to be reckoned with. So that leaves us with the Braves, Marlins, and Phillies. The fish are a good team, but I don't think they have the support of the city of Miami. While that doesn't seem like that big of a deal, I think it'll account for something. The Phillies are an explosive offensive team. I don't think the pitching will stack up though. So as much as it pains me to say it (I hate the Braves), Atlanta will be the team to beat. With Smoltz back in the rotation and Kolb as the closer, it might be lights out for the other NL teams.
My pick: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: What was the best division in baseball last year is now probably has only one team at the top. The Cubbies are overrated, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee won't get too far. I think Cincinatti will hold on until a little after the All-Star break. In the end though, it'll be St. Louis at the top, and a battle between the Cubbies and my Astros for second. Don't forget the old No Fear Shirts "2nd place is the first loser". That may be the case usually, but not when the Wild Card is at stake. St. Louis is a team that I can't hate. They are of course in the same division as the Astros, but are all in all a classy team. They have by far the best line-up in baseball, and their pitching is great. They'll probably sweep the Astros in the first series of the year.
My pick: St. Louis Cardinals
NL Wild Card: Houston Astros (who else?)
Post Season...
AL
Divisional Series
Yankees over the Twins
Angels over the Red Sox
AL Championship
Yankees over Angels
NL
Divisional Series
Astros over the Braves
Cards over the Padres
NL Championship
Cardinals over the Astros (in 7)
World Series
Cardinals over the Yankees in 6
It's the Cardinal's year....
Of course I am by no means an expert, but check back on these in October...
posted by Sancho at 8:48 AM
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